Funding ebbs and flows in recognizable waves linked to liquidity, risk appetite, and technological breakthroughs. Look for synchronized peaks across deal counts, median valuations, and time-to-close; aligning those curves helps distinguish noise from structural change. Founders who timed raises before rate hikes often preserved runway and ownership, a lesson visible when chart annotations mark policy shifts and IPO windows opening or slamming shut.
A few mega-rounds can distort the average, masking reality for most founders. The median shows the typical experience, especially at seed where outliers loom large. Pair both with interquartile ranges to see distribution width. In 2021 booms, means surged faster than medians; subsequent normalization reversed that gap, reminding analysts to sanity-check narratives against quantiles and cohort-level context before celebrating or panicking.
Grouping companies by first-round year reveals how conditions echo through later stages. A 2019 seed cohort, for example, hit Series A during tightening, altering conversion rates and check sizes. Charts that track cohort survival, follow-on timing, and dilution illuminate strategy trade-offs. Share your cohort definitions and we’ll show how small classification tweaks change conclusions, preventing misleading cross-sectional snapshots from driving expensive decisions.
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